Track · 2:30 · Liner note
Tomorrow, Roughly
A forecast estimates future values from past patterns, and a good one reports a range of likely outcomes and its past error instead of a single confident number.
Forecasts are wrong by definition and useful by design. Tomorrow, Roughly is the honest framing: here is the expected value, here is the range around it, here is how wrong we were last time. A forecast that shows a single line is hiding its uncertainty.
Start with a simple baseline, such as last week’s same day, and adopt a fancier model only if it beats that in backtests. Track error over time and state the assumptions, since seasonality, promotions and outages can all break a pattern that held for months.